September – October 2018

U.S. Economic and Market Highlights

The year-over-year reading for Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) rose to 2.0%. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and is right on target.
However, given that U.S. GDP growth rising above a 3.5% annualized rate in the third quarter the expectation is for inflation to rise above the Fed’s target rate.
Rising wages could add upward pressure on inflation, which will give the Fed further support to continue raising interest rates. Average hourly earnings rose 2.8% year-over-year as of September 30. Read more →

The U.S. GDP grew at a revised 4.2% annualized rate in the second quarter.
The unemployment rate remained at 3.9%, in the U.S., slightly above its lowest level since 1969.
Average hourly earnings increased 2.9% year over year, a growth rate not seen since 2009.
Rising wages could add upward pressure on inflation, which will give the Fed further support to continue raising the Fed Funds rate, which was increased to 2.25% on September 26^th. Read more →

Revised second quarter U.S. GDP grew at a robust 4.2% annualized pace, the strongest growth rate since 2014.
Higher government spending and business investment along with lower corporate tax rates have been main contributors.
U.S. consumer confidence reports show that expectations for continued growth are high for the next six months.
Better-than-expected second quarter earnings results and strong economic data overshadowed ongoing concerns about the trade conflict with China and, to a lesser extent, the European Union.
Read more →